I agree with your assessment. But I'm left to wonder: Can this country be saved? Is it *worth* saving? I honestly don't know, and it makes me heartsick.
Thanks for talking me off the ledge! I have moments when I think the authoritarian death cult in power can't be defeated. I'm hopeful, but it's a kind of hope that requires work.
I think that much of the Republican base today is very nihilistic. If they can't destroy their enemies, they're perfectly happy destroying the country itself. Think about how much they mirror the Germans who stuck with Hitler to the bitter end and the poor white non-slave owners who fought on behalf of the Confederacy. They had little to begin with and nothing left to lose, but were still willing to stick with the person who was their avenging angel against the people they hate. If the coronavirus does the trick, that's ok as well.
Rather than trying to accommodate people who see us as the ultimate enemy, we need to call these people out as who they truly are - destroyers of America and enemies of democracy. No matter what happens with COVID-19 and Dump, we must fight these folks as aggressively as we are fighting the pandemic if we want to save the Republic.
I agree with your view, but disagree with the somewhat misleading chart. 1) When dealing with exponential growth, one should use a logarithmic chart, not a linear one; and, 2) the growth in daily cases for the US is due to the increasing testing (finally). I'm just a tech nerd, so such things matter to me more than they should.
A good source of data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. Scroll down to the first 2 graphs (Total cases and Total deaths). They are shown in “linear scale”. But note the upper-left corner in each graph, click on “logarithmic”. Note that a straight line with an upward slope is bad. If you look at the total cases (logarithmic option), you see this linearity from mid-jan to mid-feb. This was almost all Chinese cases. After that it turns to become almost a horizontal line - reflecting China’s control of the growth. But then in March, the line starts sloping up again and becoming linear at almost the same rate as seen in China in mid-February, reflecting the growth of cases in the rest of the world.
On that webpage, scroll down and look at the table, which has the data per country. Since countries report their data at different times of the day, to get a complete day’s increase in cases and deaths, click on “yesterday” just above the table.
You can also click on a country in the table to drill down and see what is happening in a specific country. When you look at a specific country, eg USA, the most important chart for me is the daily new cases. We will know when we have “turned the corner” when the 3-day moving average (which you have to eye-ball or do it yourself) is on a downward trend. It is beginning to look like that this may be happening in italy. An early indication of this trend is also indicated in the graph above (Total cases for Italy) when viewed at the ‘logarithmic” setting - It is starting to curve (but very slightly). For the kind of graphs and charts that we want to see, look at S. Korea.
It is not possible to tell how many cases in a given day are a factor of the spreading of the virus versus testing becoming more available. Here is how I look at it though. From what I read (somewhere), we would expect the number of cases to double in 1 week. That is a growth rate of about 10%/day. When I see growth rates significantly above that, I assume that it’s the increased testing. In some sense, hope begins when we see the daily increase in cases consistently well below 10%.
If you look at the USA page, you will also see a breakdown by state. Right now about 45% of total cases are in NY state. Also about 45% of the new daily cases are NY state. The epicenter is NYC metropolitan area, e.g. Westchester County was recognized as a hot spot before NYC. I suspect that some portion of NJ cases are really, NYC metropolitan NYC.
For a quick overview of the data in the world and the US, I recommend:
https://ncov2019.live/data - this was done by a 17yr old. With Button in upper right, you can leave him a tip. I did. There have been improvements in the site over the last week, and I expect even more to come
If you happen to live in Florida, as I do, Florida has a great data website:
Here are the best charts comparing countries: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest -Does not require an FT subscription. In terms of the rate of case growth, Japan managed to stay on the path of doubling every week. Other countries are on the path of doubling every 3 days (or worse).
I'm sad to say that you're probably right. Republicans don't mind seeing the virus decimate New York and other large cities. I see on Facebook people still attack Schumer and pelosi for trying to get a proper aid package through. I thought that maybe it was educational issues but I think it's more evil than that. sadly it is a cult
No mention of right wing media outlets? I believe they bear an outsized portion of the responsibility. I wholeheartedly agree with the claim that the republican voter will continue to be the problem, however, this is unlikely to change while Fox News et al, tirelessly pump their fascist propaganda into the airwaves.
Thank you!
I agree with your assessment. But I'm left to wonder: Can this country be saved? Is it *worth* saving? I honestly don't know, and it makes me heartsick.
Where are you on this?
Yes it's worth saving and it can be saved. After lots and lots of damage and death.
Thanks for talking me off the ledge! I have moments when I think the authoritarian death cult in power can't be defeated. I'm hopeful, but it's a kind of hope that requires work.
thank you for your work // it's so necessary // about to tell people about it in our newsletter
I think that much of the Republican base today is very nihilistic. If they can't destroy their enemies, they're perfectly happy destroying the country itself. Think about how much they mirror the Germans who stuck with Hitler to the bitter end and the poor white non-slave owners who fought on behalf of the Confederacy. They had little to begin with and nothing left to lose, but were still willing to stick with the person who was their avenging angel against the people they hate. If the coronavirus does the trick, that's ok as well.
Rather than trying to accommodate people who see us as the ultimate enemy, we need to call these people out as who they truly are - destroyers of America and enemies of democracy. No matter what happens with COVID-19 and Dump, we must fight these folks as aggressively as we are fighting the pandemic if we want to save the Republic.
I agree with your view, but disagree with the somewhat misleading chart. 1) When dealing with exponential growth, one should use a logarithmic chart, not a linear one; and, 2) the growth in daily cases for the US is due to the increasing testing (finally). I'm just a tech nerd, so such things matter to me more than they should.
Hi Fred, can you send us an example of what you're talking about? A link is fine.
A good source of data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. Scroll down to the first 2 graphs (Total cases and Total deaths). They are shown in “linear scale”. But note the upper-left corner in each graph, click on “logarithmic”. Note that a straight line with an upward slope is bad. If you look at the total cases (logarithmic option), you see this linearity from mid-jan to mid-feb. This was almost all Chinese cases. After that it turns to become almost a horizontal line - reflecting China’s control of the growth. But then in March, the line starts sloping up again and becoming linear at almost the same rate as seen in China in mid-February, reflecting the growth of cases in the rest of the world.
On that webpage, scroll down and look at the table, which has the data per country. Since countries report their data at different times of the day, to get a complete day’s increase in cases and deaths, click on “yesterday” just above the table.
You can also click on a country in the table to drill down and see what is happening in a specific country. When you look at a specific country, eg USA, the most important chart for me is the daily new cases. We will know when we have “turned the corner” when the 3-day moving average (which you have to eye-ball or do it yourself) is on a downward trend. It is beginning to look like that this may be happening in italy. An early indication of this trend is also indicated in the graph above (Total cases for Italy) when viewed at the ‘logarithmic” setting - It is starting to curve (but very slightly). For the kind of graphs and charts that we want to see, look at S. Korea.
It is not possible to tell how many cases in a given day are a factor of the spreading of the virus versus testing becoming more available. Here is how I look at it though. From what I read (somewhere), we would expect the number of cases to double in 1 week. That is a growth rate of about 10%/day. When I see growth rates significantly above that, I assume that it’s the increased testing. In some sense, hope begins when we see the daily increase in cases consistently well below 10%.
If you look at the USA page, you will also see a breakdown by state. Right now about 45% of total cases are in NY state. Also about 45% of the new daily cases are NY state. The epicenter is NYC metropolitan area, e.g. Westchester County was recognized as a hot spot before NYC. I suspect that some portion of NJ cases are really, NYC metropolitan NYC.
2 other useful websites:
For a quick overview of the data in the world and the US, I recommend:
https://ncov2019.live/data - this was done by a 17yr old. With Button in upper right, you can leave him a tip. I did. There have been improvements in the site over the last week, and I expect even more to come
If you happen to live in Florida, as I do, Florida has a great data website:
https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86
About 45% of Florida cases are in South Florida, specifically, Miami-Dade and Broward counties. My wife and I live in Miami Beach.
Here are the best charts comparing countries: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest -Does not require an FT subscription. In terms of the rate of case growth, Japan managed to stay on the path of doubling every week. Other countries are on the path of doubling every 3 days (or worse).
I'm sad to say that you're probably right. Republicans don't mind seeing the virus decimate New York and other large cities. I see on Facebook people still attack Schumer and pelosi for trying to get a proper aid package through. I thought that maybe it was educational issues but I think it's more evil than that. sadly it is a cult
No mention of right wing media outlets? I believe they bear an outsized portion of the responsibility. I wholeheartedly agree with the claim that the republican voter will continue to be the problem, however, this is unlikely to change while Fox News et al, tirelessly pump their fascist propaganda into the airwaves.