I think this is right. While it's probabilistically true that any of the top four or five candidates could become the nominee, Biden remains most likely to get the nod. Just looked at 538's new primary contest model, which, while imperfect, is more rigorous than the constant stream of pure punditry we get. Biden's not a lock in their model, and we shouldn't treat him as one, but he's well-positioned to win.
Sanders' biggest problem has always been that he's a factional candidate rather than a coalitional one. He's running, in part, against the Dem establishment. To borrow a phrase from Bloomberg's Jonathan Bernstein, Warren -- by contrast -- sings the Dem music better than nearly anyone else. She's *more* coalitional than Sanders but ultimately *less* coalitional than Biden, mostly because she doesn't have a strong well of support among pragmatic, risk-averse black voters.
As usual, a lot of the commentary around the debates and the primary process has been breathless and hyperbolic. In the end, the outcome may be more predictable -- more *dull* -- than a lot of reporters and columnists currently think. And dull doesn't lend itself to good copy.
I think this is right. While it's probabilistically true that any of the top four or five candidates could become the nominee, Biden remains most likely to get the nod. Just looked at 538's new primary contest model, which, while imperfect, is more rigorous than the constant stream of pure punditry we get. Biden's not a lock in their model, and we shouldn't treat him as one, but he's well-positioned to win.
Sanders' biggest problem has always been that he's a factional candidate rather than a coalitional one. He's running, in part, against the Dem establishment. To borrow a phrase from Bloomberg's Jonathan Bernstein, Warren -- by contrast -- sings the Dem music better than nearly anyone else. She's *more* coalitional than Sanders but ultimately *less* coalitional than Biden, mostly because she doesn't have a strong well of support among pragmatic, risk-averse black voters.
As usual, a lot of the commentary around the debates and the primary process has been breathless and hyperbolic. In the end, the outcome may be more predictable -- more *dull* -- than a lot of reporters and columnists currently think. And dull doesn't lend itself to good copy.