Well put, John. We should take what we can get. Unfortunately, the Raise the Wage Act (RWA) would have also put Democrats in a good position (somewhat), akin to how much float the ACA delivered, with a number of red states.
Barring Georgia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (all blue, some barely, this past election cycle), every $7.25 (or even less) minimum wage state is a red state. (For states' rates, go here: https://www.paycor.com/resource-center/minimum-wage-by-state. Note that 20 states are at the lowest end.) So the RWA would most affect red states, exactly where Democrats want to compete.
Then there is the questing of timing. The effects of the RWA would be felt immediately. That favors reward-performance arguments. It's always harder to make that argument for policies that don't deliver immediate results. (In a sense, it's why Trump's tax breaks to the rich didn't poll that well, but stimulus payment did. Trickle down--myth that it is--still has to "trickle down.")
So, plays in red states? Check. Immediate impact? Check? But how broadly would its effect be felt? Well, we actually know the answer to that. It's here: https://www.governing.com/archive/minimum-wage-workers-by-state-totals.html#data. The overall impact would range from 0.5% of the workforce in our most populous state (California) to over 4% in such states as (unsurprisingly) Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee. And how impactful is that in a red state?
Well, the answer is not enough. Not really even close in a number of them. Let's take Tennessee. Trump won Tennessee in 2020 by 700K votes out of 3 million cast (or 60.7% of the vote). Even if every single 4% minimum wage earner had voted and been a Trump voter and then switched their vote to Biden, that would move 120,000 votes at the absolute most. Do the math across many of those red states and it simply doesn't add up.
All of this is to confirm that your argument is entirely right. We should raise the minimum wage because it's the right thing to do, not because of the reward--particularly because the numbers don't even bear out the reward argument under the cold calculus of self-interest.
Some people just can't take 'maybe' for an answer...
Well put, John. We should take what we can get. Unfortunately, the Raise the Wage Act (RWA) would have also put Democrats in a good position (somewhat), akin to how much float the ACA delivered, with a number of red states.
Let's start here with the rate at which the minimum wage would have climbed under the RWA (https://edlabor.house.gov/imo/media/doc/2021-01-26%20Raise%20the%20Wage%20Act%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf).
Barring Georgia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (all blue, some barely, this past election cycle), every $7.25 (or even less) minimum wage state is a red state. (For states' rates, go here: https://www.paycor.com/resource-center/minimum-wage-by-state. Note that 20 states are at the lowest end.) So the RWA would most affect red states, exactly where Democrats want to compete.
Then there is the questing of timing. The effects of the RWA would be felt immediately. That favors reward-performance arguments. It's always harder to make that argument for policies that don't deliver immediate results. (In a sense, it's why Trump's tax breaks to the rich didn't poll that well, but stimulus payment did. Trickle down--myth that it is--still has to "trickle down.")
So, plays in red states? Check. Immediate impact? Check? But how broadly would its effect be felt? Well, we actually know the answer to that. It's here: https://www.governing.com/archive/minimum-wage-workers-by-state-totals.html#data. The overall impact would range from 0.5% of the workforce in our most populous state (California) to over 4% in such states as (unsurprisingly) Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee. And how impactful is that in a red state?
Well, the answer is not enough. Not really even close in a number of them. Let's take Tennessee. Trump won Tennessee in 2020 by 700K votes out of 3 million cast (or 60.7% of the vote). Even if every single 4% minimum wage earner had voted and been a Trump voter and then switched their vote to Biden, that would move 120,000 votes at the absolute most. Do the math across many of those red states and it simply doesn't add up.
All of this is to confirm that your argument is entirely right. We should raise the minimum wage because it's the right thing to do, not because of the reward--particularly because the numbers don't even bear out the reward argument under the cold calculus of self-interest.
well said